A decision support methodology to enhance the competitiveness of the Turkish automotive industry

This is the post-print (final draft post-refereeing) version of the article. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Three levels of competitiveness affect the success of business enterprises in a globally competitive environment: the competitiveness of the company, the competitiveness of the industry in which the company operates and the competitiveness of the country where the business is located. This study analyses the competitiveness of the automotive industry in association with the national competitiveness perspective using a methodology based on Bayesian Causal Networks. First, we structure the competitiveness problem of the automotive industry through a synthesis of expert knowledge in the light of the World Economic Forum’s competitiveness indicators. Second, we model the relationships among the variables identified in the problem structuring stage and analyse these relationships using a Bayesian Causal Network. Third, we develop policy suggestions under various scenarios to enhance the national competitive advantages of the automotive industry. We present an analysis of the Turkish automotive industry as a case study. It is possible to generalise the policy suggestions developed for the case of Turkish automotive industry to the automotive industries in other developing countries where country and industry competitiveness levels are similar to those of Turkey

Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey

This is the post-print version of the article which has been published and is available at the link below.In this research, an integrated gravity-based model was built, and a scenario analysis was conducted to project the demand levels for routes related to the highway projects suggested in TINA-Turkey. The gravity-based model was used to perform a disaggregated analysis to estimate the demand levels that will occur on the routes which are planned to be improved in specific regions of Turkey from now until 2020. During the scenario development phase for these gravity-based models, the growth rate of Turkey's GDP, as estimated by the World Bank from now until 2017, was used as the baseline scenario. Besides, it is assumed that the gross value added (GVA) of the origin and destination regions of the selected routes will show a pattern similar to GDP growth rates. Based on the estimated GDP values, and the projected GVA growth rates, the demand for each selected route was projected and found that the demand level for some of these road projects is expected to be very low, and hence additional measures would be needed to make these investments worthwhile

Effects of quotas on Turkish foreign trade: a gravity model

As stated by a European Union Commission Report (2009), Turkey's role as a world trade participant has grown in recent years, particularly as the country has been capitalizing more on its unique geopolitical position. Given the substantial trade volume and deep-rooted relations between Turkey and the EU, due attention should be paid to their trade and economic relations, and steps should be taken to improve these relations. Turkey is the biggest economy that is in a Customs Union (CU) with the EU, but not a member of the EU, along with Andorra, Monaco, and San Marino. When it joined the CU in 1996, Turkey removed all customs duties and equivalent charges as well as quantitative restrictions. However, some EU countries impose quota limits on Turkish road transporters that may indirectly restrict trade between Turkey and the country in question. This study has investigated the effect of road-transport quotas on Turkish foreign trade with EU countries. A gravity model estimated using panel data from 18 selected EU countries between 2005 and 2012 was used for this purpose. Furthermore, as one of the leading sectors using road transportation for Turkish exports to EU countries, the textile sector was analyzed as a case study. The results indicated that quotas have significant effects on total Turkish exports by road transport as well as Turkish textile exports to EU countries. The estimated loss of Turkish exports to the selected countries in the time period analyzed was 10.6 billion dollars of Turkey's total exports by road transport and 5.65 billion dollars of Turkey's total textile exports. Therefore, it can be concluded that the quota limitations are against CU regulations because they limit not only road transportation, but also trade between parties

A multi-commodity network flow and gravity model integration for analyzing impact of road transport quotas on international trade

ULENGIN, BURC/0000-0001-5276-8861; Kabak, Ozgur/0000-0002-5542-309X; Ulengin, Fusun/0000-0003-1738-9756; Cekyay, Bora/0000-0002-6847-9033; Toktas-Palut, Peral/0000-0002-8864-0904Although EU and Turkey are integrated by Customs Union since 1996, there are still quota limits to Turkish road transport in some European countries. These quotas cause concerns related to increased transportation costs, which will in turn increase the costs of export goods and create important barriers to international trade. In this study, the effects of quotas on Turkish foreign trade with EU countries are investigated using an integrated multicommodity flow model and a gravity model. The classical multi-commodity network flow model is innovatively used to predict the costs of transportation with and without the transit and bilateral quotas applied by the European countries. As a result, the extra costs originating from the quotas are forecasted. These extra costs are used in a gravity model to analyze their effect on international trade. The gravity model is estimated with panel data related to 17 selected European countries between 2009 and 2015. The results indicate that the costs originating from the quotas have significant effects on Turkish total exports, and exports of food and beverages and the machinery and equipment sectors. The size of the losses in the total export and the selected sectors are also calculated by using a scenario analysis.TUBITAK, The Scientific and Technological Research Council of TurkeyTurkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Arastirma Kurumu (TUBITAK) [114K582]This study was supported by TUBITAK, The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, Project No.: 114K582

A simulation-based approach for improving the largest border crossing between Europe and Turkey

Kapikule border crossing, connecting Turkey to Bulgaria, is one of the largest customs gates at Europe via road transportation. Although it has a high capacity and large land area, there occurs long delays in the custom services due to inefficient operations resulting with long queues of trucks and long service times. To overcome this problem, in this study we investigated the strategies that could be implemented to increase the efficiency of the Kapikule border crossing. In-depth interviews were conducted with the Kapikule customs gate authorities to determine the process flows. The current situation at the gate was analysed using discrete event simulation. Furthermore, several improvement scenarios were tested to identify those that will have the highest impact on reducing the queues and delays at the border. As a result, specific suggestions were delivered for the import and export processes. According to the results, Turkey's export to European countries by road is expected to increase by at least 5% by the suggested improvements made at the Kapikule Border.International Transporters' Association of TurkeyThis study is supported by the International Transporters' Associa-tion of Turkey (UND-Uluslararas Nakliyeciler DerThis study is sup-ported by the International Transporters' Association of Turkey (UND-Uluslararas Nakliyeciler Dernegi) . We are grateful to the Kapkule Border Crossing authorities for their cooperation

Optimizing fire station locations for Istanbul metropolitan municipality

The Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) seeks to determine locations for additional fire stations to build in Istanbul; its objective is to make residences and historic sites reachable by emergency vehicles within five minutes of a fire station's receipt of a service request. In this paper, we discuss our development of a mathematical model to aid IMM in determining these locations by using data retrieved from its fire incident records. We use a geographic information system to implement the model on Istanbul's road network, and solve two location models-set-covering and maximal-covering-as what-if scenarios. We discuss 10 scenarios, including the situation that existed when we initiated the project and the scenario that IMM implemented. The scenario implemented increases the city's fire station coverage from 58.6 percent to 85.9 percent, based on a five-minute response time, with an implementation plan that spans three years

A multi-commodity network flow and gravity model integration for analyzing impact of road transport quotas on international trade

Although EU and Turkey are integrated by Customs Union since 1996, there are still quota limits to Turkish road transport in some European countries. These quotas cause concerns related to increased transportation costs, which will in turn increase the costs of export goods and create important barriers to international trade. In this study, the effects of quotas on Turkish foreign trade with EU countries are investigated using an integrated multi-commodity flow model and a gravity model. The classical multi-commodity network flow model is innovatively used to predict the costs of transportation with and without the transit and bilateral quotas applied by the European countries. As a result, the extra costs originating from the quotas are forecasted. These extra costs are used in a gravity model to analyze their effect on international trade. The gravity model is estimated with panel data related to 17 selected European countries between 2009 and 2015. The results indicate that the costs originating from the quotas have significant effects on Turkish total exports, and exports of food and beverages and the machinery and equipment sectors. The size of the losses in the total export and the selected sectors are also calculated by using a scenario analysis